Find your exact financial independence number, how many years until you can retire, and the probability you'll sustain withdrawals — across 1,000,000 Monte Carlo market scenarios.
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. The goal is to accumulate enough invested assets that the passive returns from your portfolio cover your living expenses indefinitely — making paid work optional.
The core calculation is the 25x rule: your FIRE number is 25 times your annual spending. This is derived from the 4% safe withdrawal rate — the maximum you can take from a diversified portfolio annually without running out of money over a 30-year retirement horizon.
But standard FIRE calculators use fixed returns. Real markets crash. That's why Monte Carlo simulation — running 1,000,000 different market scenarios — is the gold standard for FIRE planning.
Retire on minimal spending — typically under $40,000/yr. Lower FIRE number but higher sequence-of-returns risk. Requires extreme frugality.
Retire with a high standard of living — $100,000+/yr. Larger FIRE number, but more buffer against market crashes and inflation.
Semi-retire with part-time or low-stress work covering some expenses. Dramatically reduces required portfolio size.
The point where you've invested enough that compound growth alone will reach your FIRE number by retirement age — without adding another dollar.
Estimates assume 7% real returns. Your personalised timeline calculated free below.
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